Arbitrage points in domestic and foreign markets in the first half of 2019

- Jul 23, 2019-

In terms of the variation of LLDPE price difference in the first half of the year, imported linear us dollar quotation and domestic linear price have diverged twice, respectively in early April and mid-may to the end of the period, in addition, the trend of the two is basically the same.


Overall, international oil futures fell to their lowest levels in more than a year before Christmas 2018, as U.S. stocks plunged.

However, with the rapid recovery of the U.S. stock market after the holiday, international crude oil prices also rebounded, showing an overall upward trend from the beginning of 2019 to the middle of April, and a range of fluctuations within a month thereafter.

But international oil was one of several markets hit by panic selling, sending crude futures to multi-month lows in early June, spurred by the resignation of British prime minister Theresa may.

Since then, the OPEC+ countries' position on agreeing to continue the agreement and the OPEC production decline has helped the country move back into the recovery zone.

As for the PE market, the us announced a 25% tariff on plastic products from China last year, which led to a sharp decline in orders from domestic export processing enterprises, as well as the weak domestic economy caused by the trade war and other factors, which weakened the PE terminal demand.

Therefore, although the international crude oil futures price has entered the recovery range since the beginning of the year, the linear price of us dollar market and domestic materials in the domestic market has not been supported by the rising cost, but has shown a weak downward trend in the first half of the year.

In the presence of two direction differentiation, because after the beginning of April, China's domestic demand for agricultural films since march peak in March, but by linear futures rebound during early April and April China PE device caused by intensive maintenance during the period of supply tightening expectations, homemade linear product prices are relatively strong, has higher stability.

However, as the us dollar quotation is mostly for forward shipment, the linear us dollar quotation is weaker due to the expected influence of the agricultural film demand in the off-season market in the next few months.

In the middle of may, affected by the downstream demand into the off-season and petrochemical general plastic inventory elimination slow and other negative factors, the trend of domestic linear futures weakened, the price of domestic linear material went down.

However, due to the relatively high raw material purchase cost of import traders in the early stage, and the relative shortage of some brand goods, the quotation for us dollars remains high, but the actual price of RMB shipment has fallen.

Since then, the linear spread between usd and RMB has entered the premium range, and the range has shown an expanding trend.

Slump in crude oil futures continuous as the end of may, the foreign supplier of linear cut the shipment price of the product, thus promote the import traders booking cargo's enthusiasm, and rapid fall in linear $plate quotation, close to the RMB price, and again during the period of late June into small discount on domestic material status.

In terms of the price point, the usd quotation of imported linear products reached a half-year high of about 1032 usd/ton in January, while the low point occurred in the handover in the upper and middle of June, which was about 890 usd/ton.