Domestic polypropylene production capacity surge in PP imports how to deal with

- Apr 17, 2019-

I. comparison of domestic PP capacity expansion between 2014 and 2019


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In 2014, the production capacity of polypropylene increased significantly, with 3.25 million tons of new energy added in the whole year, of which coal production accounted for 52% in 2014, oil production accounted for 32% in 2014, and PDH series accounted for 16% in 2014.

In 2019, the capacity is expected to be 3.25 million tons, of which the oil system accounts for 43% of the total planned capacity expansion in 2019, followed by the PDH series which accounts for 25% of the planned capacity expansion in 2019. The comparison of the two data shows that the energy expansion in 2019 is more focused on the oil system and PDH series.

The PDH series is favored by most investors because of its low cost and relatively fat profits.

In the face of domestic expansion situation in full swing, import performance change trend is more obvious.


The three categories of imports vary


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From the comparison of import data from 2011 to 2018, it can be found that the average polypropylene import volume showed a turning point growth in 2016, mainly due to the gradual increase of international crude oil price and the increase of international polypropylene cost.

After the import volume of block copolymerization reached its peak in recent years in 2015, the import volume remained basically flat in the following three years, mainly due to the gradual increase of domestic block copolymerization supply and the gradual decrease of dependence on foreign imports, resulting in the difficulty in increasing the import block copolymerization.

The change of other copolymers' overall import volume is not obvious. Because the domestic transparent import volume is mainly concentrated in the processing trade of imported materials from downstream factories, the flow of imported transparent materials in the domestic market is relatively tight.


Three, the import are poly production and marketing country ranking found


Primary form import market in 2014-2018 data contrast found that South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Taiwan, is a major source of domestic imports, including South Korea is remarkable performance has been ranked in the first place, from the historical data analysis, excluding special case in 2017, imports of south Korean homopolymerization PP resources showed a trend of slight cut, combined with domestic capacity situation, can be found that the domestic polypropylene primary form gradually in the saturated state, and part of the drawing resource supply situation clearly, so the dependence on imported Korea and national primary form gradually decline.


Iv. Where to go for PP import of primary resources in China


Import primary form in the domestic PP production surge age appear pressure particularly obvious, because the domestic PP production capacity first choose production scheduling is given priority to with homopolymerization, from the current domestic PP overall capacity structure found coal series products are polyethylene product supply, the more the increasing market product homogeneityphenomenon serious, imported homopolymerization products corresponding to reduce, in order to guarantee profits when choosing foreign relative profitable and competitive pressure small block copolymerization and pocket copolymerization.

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