The recent trade war between the United States and China, as well as other countries, has drawn global attention.Although the trade war has not actually started, but the world is closely watching the "war" every move.
China association of synthetic resin supply and marketing industry in 2018 the situation analysis and the second session of the second council, automobil buy plastic industrial Internet holding group supply chain strategy officer and * * economist Yang Xianghong were invited to the current situation of the development of our country's economy as "China's economic status quo, the future opportunities and challenges facing" theme report, economic impact on the chemical industry in China and in the future development trend of the chemical industry, an in-depth analysis.
China's GDP growth rate in 2017 is still the highest in the world, but its per capita GDP is still low, Yang said in the report.China's per capita income is far lower than that of developed countries.China's economy has maintained steady development driven by the advantages of institutionalization, industry and industrial chain, product technology innovation and Internet economy.
A big variable in the relationship between China and the United States is that China's rise has been much faster than americans expected, and Chinese manufacturing has begun to shake several American manufacturing crowns, including the aerospace, semiconductor and auto industries.A united front of the European Union, Japan and the United States would hurt China's business interests.
Development challenges of chemchina in the next 10 years
At present, China's chemical industry is facing * challenges, Yang said: with the country's economic development and the importance of environmental protection, China's government is accelerating the chemical industry reshuffle.The main performance is: strict control of VCO emissions, do not allow the production of enterprises that do not meet the environmental protection standards;Promulgate transportation regulations to strengthen the control of storage and transportation of chemical dangerous goods;New regulations will be formulated to "rush" chemical enterprises to chemical industrial parks with better production and safety facilities.
Automobil plastic net understand, according to the "about promoting the urban population concentration areas of dangerous chemicals production enterprise transferring guidance" policy, various provinces and autonomous regions in China are actively formulate measures to promote the transferring process, although the implementation method is slightly different, but the overall two-step: chemical potential risks smes and the existing of large enterprises. All start transferring at the end of 2018, completed before the end of 2020.All other large chemical enterprises and super-large enterprises will start their relocation and transformation by the end of 2020 and complete it by the end of 2025.. At present, the domestic many provinces and cities to push for transferring process, such as tianjin, gansu, henan, zhejiang, jiangsu, anhui, sichuan, heilongjiang, jilin, guangdong, etc., has formulated relevant planning, start for move, vigorously completes the production safety, green environmental protection, the goal of sustainable development, push for enterprise rapid development under the condition of no pollution, guaranteed.
At the same time, due to the increase in environmental governance costs, increased cost burden of enterprises, withdrawal of foreign capital, product overcapacity and other factors, China's chemical industry is facing severe development challenges.
In 2017, China's ethylene production capacity reached 24.555 million tons per year, ranking second in the world after the United States.According to incomplete statistics, from 2017 to 2021, China plans to launch more than 40 new ethylene projects, involving at least 24 million tons of new production capacity per year.China's propylene production capacity will reach 35.02 million tons in 2017, with a compound annual growth rate of about 9.52% from 2017 to 2021, and 50.4 million tons in 2021.
In view of the development of the plastics industry, general manager Yang pointed out that in the next five years China's general and engineering plastics general model capacity will be seriously surplus;Due to the rapid expansion of China's production capacity, the growth of domestic demand cannot keep pace with the expansion of production capacity.Generic and engineering plastics models are being forced out of the market.
Specific analysis of three plastics: PC, PMMA, nylon products
PC: over the past two years, we have focused on releasing excess capacity
In 2016, China's polycarbonate production capacity was 875,000 tons and production capacity was 595,000 tons, with an operating rate of 68%.The apparent consumption was 1.69 million tons, +2.14% year-on-year, the net import was 1.1 million tons, and the foreign dependence was as high as 65%. The future import substitution space is still large.
The industrial production process of polycarbonate has experienced solution phosgene, interfacial condensation phosgene, melt transesterification and non-phosgene melt transesterification.The solution phosgene method has been eliminated because of its poor economy and environmental protection.Non-phosgene melt transesterification method does not use toxic phosgene, the raw material phenol can be recycled, does not need drying and washing, is an environmentally friendly production process, is the future development direction of polycarbonate production technology.
Global and domestic PC market application distribution
In terms of applications, both domestic and global markets, the field of electronic appliances is PC terminal applications *.At home, electronics and appliances account for 31% of the PC market, followed by 22% of the automotive industry, 21% of sheet and film applications, and a smaller proportion of medical care, packaging and consumer goods, accounting for 16%. The remaining 10% is in other fields.Electronics and appliances accounted for 34 percent of the global market, followed by healthcare, packaging and consumer goods at 26 percent, followed by the automotive industry at 16 percent, panels and thin films at 13 percent, and the rest at 11 percent.
Geographically, northeast Asia has high production capacity *, accounting for 43% of global polycarbonate production, followed by Western Europe (23%), North America (17%) and southeast Asia (11%).Due to the high technical threshold of polycarbonate production, the production capacity is mainly concentrated in multinational chemical enterprises, and the supply is highly concentrated.According to relevant statistics, the world's top six companies accounted for more than 90% of the production capacity.
At present, China's polycarbonate production and consumption are growing rapidly, but the external dependency rate remains high.China plans to build more than 2 million tons of polycarbonate projects, and more than 1 million tons of production capacity will be released in the next two years. It is expected that the proportion of China's polycarbonate import in consumption will decrease year by year.But we should pay attention to the problems caused by overcapacity.
In the next five years, PC will have a capacity of 1.585m tons, and its annual capacity will reach 2.48m tons in 2022.
Global PC development direction
PC because of its special performance, the application direction is more.Yang pointed out that the global PC has the following major development directions: high refractive index, light diffusion, heat conduction, hot-wire shielding, biological materials, high optical properties, high water stability, high hardness, halogen-free flame retardant, super toughness and other major trends, in LED lighting, auto parts, car Windows and other aspects of the application is more and more widely.The market for high-performance PCS will continue to grow at a high rate.
PMMA: domestic high-end products are highly dependent on foreign countries
PMMA products in the world are mainly divided into PMMA plate and PMMA molding plastics, the output of which accounts for about 1:1.Because PMMA production technology mainly by the United States, Japan and other developed countries, the United States, Western Europe, Japan has become the global PMMA * large production area.
From the perspective of market demand, at present PMMA consumption is concentrated in Europe, the United States and Asia, among which the market demand in Asia grows rapidly *.With the rapid development of China's economy, China has become a global consumer of PMMA.In 2017, the primary form of PMMA consumption in China is close to 600,000 tons, and domestic PMMA supply is dependent on imports. From 2015 to 2017, China's average annual import of PMMA is close to 210,000 tons.
PMMA requirements in various areas
From the perspective of technology, PMMA production technology by foreign enterprises monopoly, domestic production enterprises to foreign enterprises.
With the further development of production technology and production technology, the application range of acrylic sheet more widely, in addition to the field of sanitary ware, also widely used in decoration, machinery, instrument, optical and other industries, such as used in the manufacture of advertising light boxes, window, soundproof Windows, sound barriers, car doors and Windows, instrument panel, guide plate, LCD display, etc.PMMA modification and composite material technology rapid progress, PMMA in medical polymer materials, optical display materials, plastic fiber and other aspects of the application has been expanded, the development prospects are broad.Due to the surging production of flat-panel TV sets, as well as the rapid growth of the demand for on-board liquid crystal displays, optical PMMA has become a growing area with a large potential market.
At present, the global PMMA market demand is expected to be 1.4 million tons, and the global production capacity is about 2.14 million tons, the production capacity is also out of serious excess state.
According to huicong plastic network, PMMA is mainly used in the electronics industry and construction industry, although the domestic PMMA production capacity is not small, but the product structure is not very reasonable, can only produce common varieties, the lack of high value-added products.High-end varieties and quality are difficult to meet domestic demand, and the rate of external dependence is high.
Yantai wanhua plans to build a plant with an annual output of 80,000 tons of PMMA(super transparent polymethyl methacrylate resin) and plans to put it into production in the first half of 2018.The project will have a single line of PMMA production capacity * large globally.At present, the PMMA production capacity in mainland China is only 340,000 tons, accounting for 15% of the global production capacity. The release of wanhua PMMA production capacity will have a positive impact on the domestic PMMA market.
Special performance nylon products have high market demand
With the increasing demand of high temperature nylon market in China, the amount of high temperature nylon is increasing year by year. It is expected that the demand for high temperature nylon in China will grow at a rate of 15%~25% in the next few years.Although the most common market materials for 3D printing * are ABS and PLA, nylon is actually the material with a large application scale *.Nylon is expected to account for 30 percent of the 3d-printed material market by 2021.
Total consumption of caprolactam
Total consumption of caprolactam
Nylon 6 is mainly used for fiber production, with 72% of the market share, engineering plastics 23% and thin films 5%.
Domestic nylon 6 increased from 1.5 to 2 million tons in 2010 to 3.5 to 4 million tons in 2017.Output also rises gradually year by year accordingly.Globally, from 2009 to 2014, the production capacity and output did not change much, ranging from 1.5 million tons to 2 million tons. Since 2015, the production capacity began to increase, and in 2017, it has reached about 5 million tons.Production has risen to about 3m tonnes.
In terms of import and export, the import volume of domestic nylon 6 has been higher than the export volume. In 2017, the export volume increased to 105,100 tons, but the import volume nearly tripled to 364,500 tons.
The global capacity of nylon 66 has reached 3.08 million tons.In terms of import and export, the import volume of nylon 66 in 2008 was 224,000 tons, and from 2010 to 2017, the import volume remained above 200,000 tons.Exports were around 40,000 tons.
With the development of automobile industry in recent years, energy saving and improving safety performance have gradually become the main direction of automobile research. Special nylon with characteristics of oil resistance, heat resistance, earthquake resistance, noise resistance and self-extinguishing has been favored by the automobile industry.In the future, through continuous technological upgrading, the automobile engine will develop towards miniaturization, turbo charging technology will become the mainstream, and matching high-temperature nylon material is expected to welcome a larger market.In addition, with the integration of electronic products, high-temperature nylon materials in the electronic connector industry will also have a greater market demand.