How long can the gains in the plastic market continue as expected

- Jun 25, 2019-

As predicted by the industry, yesterday's plastic futures market by the heads of state of the United States and China on the phone and agreed to hold a meeting during the G20 summit on the positive news shock upward, spot market prices followed the rise, about the future, the industry is expected to have a strong short-term market trend, so how about the market rise?For how long?

According to the current PE price, the PE market is flat, and the price range in east and north China is maintained at 7,650-7,850 yuan/ton, basically stable.The price range of south China is slightly explored, upward 50 yuan/ton to 7600-7900 yuan/ton, the industry is expected, the short-term mainstream price is still in 7600-7900 yuan/ton fluctuations, the market is lack of substantial good, rising weakness.

PP market price, the increase in the PE market.Yesterday PP national price index rose 60 yuan/ton to 8603 yuan/ton, today drawing materials, plastic injection, fiber, homopolymer, copolymer all up.Data show that the drawing material goes up by 100-130 yuan/ton, the plastic injection material goes up by 50-100 yuan/ton, the fiber material goes up by 100 yuan/ton, the homopolymerization and copolymerization goes up by 50 yuan/ton, and the increase is obvious.PVC market in east China, north China, the price of small rise, the increase of 20-40 yuan/ton, south China temporarily stable, because the external market is strong, the short-term domestic market is still on the trend of exploration.

As can be seen from the above plastic rally, the PE and PVC markets are both weak, although the PP market is clearly explored, but the demand is still restricting its space for exploration, from the current form, sino-us trade news good release ahead of time, PP\PE\PVC was boosted by the rise, but the late good news is few, and bad news followed.

Low demand, lack of substantive good

As we all know, june-august is the low demand season of plastic industry. The influence of high temperature and power failure will reduce or stop production of downstream manufacturers. Therefore, no matter it is PE, PP or PVC, their demand will drop.Although the current good news to boost the plastic market prices reported high, but the market transaction is still flat, demand volume is difficult.

High inventory, petrochemical plant price promotion

As of June 19, the petrochemical inventory of 860,000 tons remains high, and some petrochemical manufacturers are still maintaining price reduction and promotion operations, reducing the cost of delivery drag down the price.

Capacity growth is strong and remains bearish in the long run

According to the report, global polyethylene production capacity is expected to increase significantly in the next five years, from 1101.2 million tons per year in 2018 to 157.02 million tons per year in 2023, with global polyethylene production capacity expected to increase by 43%.Looking at the expansion of polypropylene production capacity, in the next five years, in addition to China's coal chemical production capacity, PDH production capacity and refining and chemical production capacity continue to increase (15.9 million tons of production capacity is expected to be added), new production capacity will be launched in North America, South Asia, the Middle East, southeast Asia and the commonwealth of independent states. According to industry personnel, the new production capacity abroad may reach 4.71 million tons in 2019.It can be seen that the global olefin production capacity of large input.

In conclusion, the plastics market may continue to digest the positive news of china-us trade slightly this week, but after the G20 summit next week, the market trend will become more rational and stable.