PET: spot tightening or advance overdraft peak season

- Apr 01, 2019-

Recently, the domestic PET bottle market began to strong shock.

As the country announced that the value added tax will start to reduce in April, quickly ignited the middle dealers and downstream replenishment enthusiasm, resulting in bottle chip manufacturers spot resources tend to shortage, late market heat can continue, or ahead of the overdraft season before the market?

Since late march, the domestic PET market has been in a strong and volatile situation.

Spot market prices in east China rose from 8,300-8,400 yuan/ton to around 8,500-8,600 yuan/ton.

The production and marketing of the market has improved, most orders of bottle chip manufacturers have been received from April to may, and some manufacturers have begun to receive orders from August to September. The spot resources of the market tend to be tight, bottle chip manufacturers have a strong intention of price support, and the short-term market is positive, leading to the main driving force of this round of rise. Let's briefly analyze it.

First, benefits from the good promotion of the national policy.

On March 18, the VAT reduction schedule was introduced, and from April 1, 2019, the value-added tax rate of manufacturing and other industries was reduced from 16% to 13%.

The reduction of tax rate reduced the cost of raw material procurement for the middlemen and the downstream, so they began to actively prepare a large number of goods, and the sales volume of bottle flake enterprises increased significantly, which led to the tightening of bottle flake spot resources.

Secondly, the PTA market of raw materials has begun to rebound slightly recently, and the cost of PET has been strengthened in the face of bottle level support.

Although the negative factors of the upstream PX newly put into production continue to ferment, the market decline does not change, and the cost support is weak, but with the increase of temporary parking of hengli, hanbang, yishanda and other devices, the market supply is tightened. At the same time, the demand for polyester in the downstream gets better, and the supply and demand pattern performs well, leading to a further rebound in the market.

Third, the volume of production and marketing, spot resources tend to tight.

As the middlemen and the downstream began to concentrate a large number of replenishment, bottle chip manufacturers production and sales improved, and the recent increase in foreign trade orders, so bottle chip manufacturers spot orders have been taken over, the mainstream manufacturers began to take orders in April and may, now bottle chip manufacturers mostly maintain the order delivery.

For the future, after this round of crazy stocking up, the PET market has now buried some worries.

For dealers, the large stock after April will face greater sales pressure, market spot resources or will tend to loose.

For the downstream, the downstream has reserved sufficient raw material inventory, and most of the downstream big factories have prepared enough raw material inventory for the second quarter, so there is no urgent buying demand in the short term.

For the upcoming consumption season, downstream demand or will face the risk of weakening.

Market supply and demand trend weaker, pressure on the market mentality.

And polyester raw materials PTA market due to the cost of negative pressure, the market or will maintain shock market, the cost of market promotion is limited.

Therefore, by next month, the domestic PET market will be under great pressure, and it will be difficult to have a big market.