PP: first quarter inventory build second quarter?

- Mar 27, 2019-

The overhaul intensity in the second quarter of the polypropylene market is greater than that in the first quarter.

Maintenance equipment in May: wuhan petrochemical, yanenghua, shenhua ning coal (one, two, three, four line);

The overhaul equipment in June includes Shanghai petrochemical and pucheng clean energy, etc.

Overall, the second quarter of the device maintenance more concentrated.

New capacity: Inner Mongolia jiutai co., LTD. 600,000-ton coal-to-olefin project upstream MTO device trial run on March 20, PP device followed trial run, no product yet;

The upstream methanol unit is scheduled to stop for maintenance in April. After the methanol is restarted, the whole downstream line will open up and start up.

Dongguan juzhengyuan 600,000-ton polypropylene plant is scheduled to test run the granulator device at the end of April, mainly using propylene in the early stage, and the upstream propane dehydrogenation propylene plant is scheduled to test run in June.

From the perspective of newly added production devices, it is more likely that these two sets will be added in the second quarter.

Based on the above information, considering the gradual increase of overhaul devices in the second quarter, the petrochemical inventory will be gradually digested downward.

Demand side: considering that the demand of various industries is affected by the warming weather, except the plastic knitting industry, the automobile and home appliances of the film industry and the injection molding industry still maintain relatively weak consumption expectations, so the overall performance of the demand side is general.

At present, the two oil inventory accumulation, has been high, maintained at more than 900,000 tons.

Although the face of tax reform, part of the downstream manufacturers take advance billing.

But high inventory pressure, domestic petrochemical prices have reduced the pressure of the factory, restricting the transaction, the overall trading tepid.

At present, oil, coal - based polypropylene production companies to maintain a reasonable profit, the two oil industry is still lowered expectations.

In terms of the future trend, the inventory pressure in April was still a big downward pressure. As the inventory pressure gradually eased, the downward pressure gradually weakened in May and June as the demand side gradually returned to a stable level.

It is expected that the overall second quarter is expected to be weak domestic petrochemical trend.

Experienced the first quarter of the two oil inventory high accumulation, the market is easy to fall difficult to rise, the second quarter operators cautious trading.

At present, futures discount spot, traders low inventory operation, with the main selling, is expected to maintain this state in the second quarter.

The market price of polypropylene in the second quarter is likely to be inverted v shape.

Affected by the centralized maintenance of the regulated model enterprises, it is good to release in advance. However, due to the current high inventory, the "two barrels of oil" is expected to reduce the inventory. Even if the downstream demand starts, the rise is still slow.

With the rapid expansion of raw materials and downstream demand growth strength does not match the prominent contradiction, weak terminal demand will drag down the market upside.

May market is expected to be under pressure, a small decline in expectations.

In June, due to the impact of new energy expansion devices, the pace of market progress was hindered, and as the weather turned warm, the overall downstream demand in June was tepid, and the polypropylene market price was under pressure again.

Comprehensive advantages and disadvantages of the market is expected to rise in the second quarter after the fall finishing trend, wire drawing market high or will sprint the previous record high 9000 yuan/ton, low or in 7000 yuan/ton