Propylene: fluctuation of supply and demand surface of upstream and downstream devices becomes a key factor

- Mar 30, 2019-

In march, the market price of propylene entered the horizontal adjustment stage after a sharp drop and a sharp rise, and the supply and demand side became the key factor determining the price trend.

Since the beginning of April, the fluctuation of propylene upstream and downstream devices has become more frequent.

In early march, tianjin zhongsha downstream PP equipment maintenance and qilu petrochemical downstream butanol equipment maintenance news, the industry is strong bearish expectations.

The purchasing power of downstream factories declined significantly, and shandong propylene production enterprises suffered from poor delivery, and the market supply pressure increased sharply, which dragged down the market price of propylene sharply.

In the middle of the year, the maintenance of the downstream device of tianjin zhongsha was completed, and the propylene release stopped.

In addition, a series of good news such as qilu maintenance delay, bohai cooperation reduction, wanhua reduction of negative external mining, jinxi PP device start up boosted the market price of propylene to stop falling and rebound.

Near the end of the week, as the price of propylene market skyrocketed day after day, some of the downstream operators of the breeding resistance, market trading atmosphere slightly turned light.

During the period, hebei haiwei, HSBC petrochemical, changyi petrochemical, covec energy technology, dongchen petrochemical, wantong chemical and dongming petrochemical and other propylene manufacturers have entered the maintenance, which is good for the propylene market.

However, after qilu petrochemical butanol unit stopped for maintenance, tianjin boghua yongli butanol unit and shandong jianlan butanol unit stopped unexpectedly one after another, which brought a great negative impact on the propylene market and the market fell into a state of supply and demand pull and saw.

Although more propylene manufacturers inspected in late march, the propylene market did not pick up as scheduled. In addition to the fact that the downstream powder market did not pick up significantly, the shutdown maintenance of major downstream butanol plants is a key factor restricting the increase of propylene price.

Last week, tianjin bohua yongli and shandong jianlan butanol units stopped unexpectedly one after another, and shandong jianlan, tianjin bohua and qilu petrochemical co., ltd. have been purchasing for a long time and cooperating with a number of leading propylene manufacturers in shandong.

The upstream and downstream units of propylene fluctuate frequently in March. After April, the maintenance plan of a PDH plant in shandong province is expected to last for about 20 days, and the supporting downstream units will operate normally at that time. During this period, the load of supporting downstream units may fluctuate slightly, and some propylene consumption may be imported.

In addition, shandong yongxin, huaxing petrochemical and other propylene production enterprises also maintain maintenance plan.

In early April, the prophase maintenance of shandong qiwangda, ningbo haiyue and other propylene production enterprises are expected to resume restart.

HSBC petrochemical, changyi petrochemical, overseas energy technology and other propylene production enterprises are expected to resume in late April to the end of April restart.

In terms of the downstream units, the butanol unit of qilu petrochemical has been resumed and restarted successively on March 25, the butanol unit of bohua yongli in tianjin is expected to resume and restart this Friday or Saturday, and the butanol unit of jianlan in shandong is expected to resume and restart in April.

In addition, shandong liliyibutanol device maintenance plan will be implemented in late April, when the upstream propylene device will be simultaneously repaired and the demand for propylene external procurement will be reduced.

I heard yankuang butanol device also maintenance plan, the specific time to be determined.

Epoxy propane side no heard of a planned overhaul of the device.

In conclusion, the fluctuation of upstream and downstream units of propylene in April is still relatively frequent, and the change of supply and demand is still the key factor determining the price trend.

In April, the propylene supply is still relatively high in the inspection device, and the downstream demand is expected to further pick up. It is expected that the average price in the propylene market next month will be higher than that in March.