Propylene production capacity is expected to grow 19 percent in 2019, or face overcapacity

- Apr 15, 2019-

After the peak of expansion from 2014 to 2016 and a brief drop in 2017, the propylene industry will usher in a new record high of new propylene production capacity in 2019, which is expected to increase by 5.86 million tons/year.

However, the growth rate of propylene demand is slower than that of production capacity, and the self-sufficiency rate will increase again, and the domestic propylene capacity will surpass the equivalent consumption or face the situation of overcapacity.

In recent years, China has witnessed a rapid expansion of propylene production capacity, in which all propylene production routes have added new production capacity. Propane dehydrogenation (PDH) and coal-to-alkene (CTO) have significantly increased production capacity by virtue of cost advantages.

In addition to new capacity under the PDH route, the coal-to-alkene (CTO) route has also picked up, with new capacity added in 2019 at a historically high level.

Due to the rising international crude oil price and other factors, China's CTO has developed vigorously, especially in the western region where coal resources are abundant. Now, four CTO industrial bases have been formed, namely, erdos in Inner Mongolia, yulin in shaanxi, ningdong in ningxia and zhundong in xinjiang.

By the end of 2018, CTO's installation capacity was about 4.8 million tons per year.

In 2019, with the commissioning of three projects, jiutai energy, zhongan united coal chemical and ningxia baofeng, the new propylene production capacity will reach 900,000 tons per year.

At the same time, new refining and chemical enterprises to increase propylene production capacity can not be ignored.

Stimulated by a series of reform dividends, such as the release of crude oil import and the decentralization of examination and approval authority, new refining and petrochemical enterprises have obtained capital operation, such as bond financing and equity financing, through Banks, thus opening up the capital channel.

In 2019, China will welcome zhejiang petrochemical, bora group and other large-scale refining and petrochemical integration projects to put into production, and it is estimated that a total of 1.9 million tons/year of propylene production capacity will be released.

It should be noted that in 2019, although the consumption of propylene equivalent increased steadily, the growth rate continued to slow down.

The proportions of acetone and acrylic acid were the same as in 2017.

Butanol is a little bit lower.

In 2018, China's propylene production capacity was 34.83 million tons per year, with an output of 31.4 million tons, up 5.5 percent and 9.2 percent, respectively, from 2017, according to China petrochemical news.

Equivalent consumption was 40.1 million tons, an increase of 7 percent over the previous year.

The production capacity of propylene is expected to reach 41.73 million tons/year in 2019, with the output of 34 million tons, increasing by 19% and 8.3% respectively compared with the previous year.

Equivalent consumption reached 42.1 million tons, continuing to slow down to 5 percent.

Data shows that China's propylene supply or will face the pattern of overcapacity.