China's rubber additives industry has been developing rapidly. By 2011, the production of rubber additives has reached 820,000 tons, accounting for more than 70% of the global market share. About 30% of the products are exported to foreign countries.Antiaging agents and promoters are the main kinds of rubber auxiliaries at present, but the development potential of insoluble sulfur is huge.
PPDs is the main variety of antiaging agent, RT pease determines the competitiveness of global rubber antiaging agent PPDs (amines) occupy * dominant position;The advanced technology of the key intermediate RT pease is the key competitive factor in the 6PPD market, and its production technology and technical barriers are relatively high. Currently, only jiangsu shengao and America fulex have all intellectual property rights respectively.In 2012, the domestic market share of jiangsu sant 'ao 6PPD was as high as 65% and the overseas market share was 27%. With the settlement of the patent dispute with fulex, the company's product export is expected to continue to increase. Meanwhile, the settlement of the infringement case with shanxi xiangyu, the second largest domestic producer, will also contribute to the further increase of the domestic market share.
The promoter market is scattered, and the product upgrading is the future direction. The concentration degree of domestic product structure is not high, and the proportion of several mainstream promoters is relatively average.The main promoter manufacturers are about 13, and the products are mainly low-end;In view of environmental protection or profit, there is still much room for development of sub-sulfonamides and qiulam promoters in China.
The import of insoluble sulfur is highly dependent, and it is expected to replace the global demand of insoluble sulfur with imports of 250,000 to 300,000 tons, with the market share of fulex at more than 60%.The domestic demand for insoluble sulfur is about 80,000 tons, with low industry concentration and uneven technology, which cannot meet the requirements of most tire manufacturers and relies heavily on imports.Jiangsu shengao will put into production 15,000 tons of insoluble sulfur, which can fully alleviate the high import dependence and realize import substitution.
We forecast the company's EPS of 0.51, 0.67 and 0.83 yuan respectively from 2013 to 2015, corresponding to the PE of the current stock price of 12.5, 9.5 and 7.7 times respectively.At present, the company is committed to transforming into a chemical production enterprise, which mainly covers fine chemicals and agricultural chemicals.At the same time, agricultural and chemical business in general in the boom promotion channel, fine chemical products of rubber additives profit will be improved, maintain the "recommended" rating.